Is Iraq's Sadr Cease Fire Unraveling?

Posted by Steve Benen, The Carpetbagger Report at 10:32 AM on March 25, 2008.

A couple of weeks ago, Gen. David Petraeus touted the decline in violence in Iraq in recent months, and credited two main developments: the Sunni “Awakening” and the cease-fire called by Shiite cleric and militia leader Moqtada al-Sadr. This week, the latter seems to be unraveling.

A cease-fire critical to the improved security situation in Iraq appeared to unravel Monday when a militia loyal to radical Shiite Muslim cleric Muqtada al Sadr began shutting down neighborhoods in west Baghdad and issuing demands of the central government.

Simultaneously, in the strategic southern port city of Basra, where Sadr’s Mahdi militia is in control, the Iraqi government launched a crackdown in the face of warnings by Sadr’s followers that they’ll fight government forces if any Sadrists are detained. By 1 a.m. Arab satellite news channels reported clashes between the Mahdi Army and police in Basra.

The freeze on offensive activity by Sadr’s Mahdi Army has been a major factor behind the recent drop in violence in Iraq, and there were fears that the confrontation that’s erupted in Baghdad and Basra could end the lull in attacks, assassinations, kidnappings and bombings.

This not only points to a potentially devastating development, it’s also a relatively surprising reversal. Just one month ago, Sadr announced an extension of the cease-fire for another six months, leading many to hope there might be some semblance of stability (by Iraq standards) in the lead up to the country’s October elections.

Conditions in Iraq have worsened in recent weeks, but that was before Sadrists began making their move. Now, even the semblance of stability is very much in doubt.p

Today offers no more encouragement than yesterday.

Iraqi forces clashed with Shiite militiamen Tuesday in the southern oil port of Basra and gunmen patrolled several Baghdad neighborhoods as followers of Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr ordered nationwide protests to demand an end to the crackdown on their movement.

Explosions rang out across central Baghdad as rockets fired from Shiite areas slammed into the U.S.-protected Green Zone for the second time this week. […]

Al-Sadr’s headquarters in Najaf also ordered field commanders with his Mahdi Army militia to go on maximum alert and prepare “to strike the occupiers” -- a term used to describe U.S. forces -- and their Iraqi allies, a militia officer said. He spoke on condition of anonymity because he wasn’t supposed to release the information.

Al-Sadr has imposed a cease-fire on his militia fighters through mid-August, a move that is one of the key factors in a steep drop in violence over the past several months. But the truce is fraying.

Lawmakers from al-Sadr’s movement announced in a Baghdad press conference that a civil disobedience campaign which began in selected neighborhoods of the capital was being expanded nationwide.

It’s not at all clear what a “civil disobedience campaign” might include.

All of this, of course, comes in the midst of a discussion about U.S. troop levels, which the president is apparently prepared to leave as-is.

Troop levels in Iraq would remain nearly the same through 2008 as at any time during five years of war, under plans presented to President Bush on Monday by the senior American commander and the top American diplomat in Iraq, senior administration and military officials said.

Mr. Bush announced no final decision on future troop levels after the video briefing by the commander, Gen. David H. Petraeus, and the diplomat, Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker. The briefing took place on the day when the 4,000th American military death of the war was reported and just after the invasion’s fifth anniversary.

But it now appears likely that any decision on major reductions in American troops from Iraq will be left to the next president.

I’m almost surprised anyone would want the presidency given what Bush is planning to leave on his desk.

Tagged as: bush, iraq, al-sadr, troop levels, petraeus, the surge

Steve Benen is a freelance writer/researcher and creator of The Carpetbagger Report. In addition, he is the lead editor of Salon.com's Blog Report, and has been a contributor to Talking Points Memo, Washington Monthly, Crooks & Liars, The American Prospect, and the Guardian.