By Staying in the Campaign, Edwards Helps Obama

Posted by Chris Bowers, Open Left at 2:06 PM on January 18, 2008.

As the arguments against Edwards begin to mount online, I want to point out something that should be obvious to Obama supporters, but which I have rarely seen mentioned. By staying in the campaign, Edwards is helping Obama in states with large African-American populations. Consider, for example, that Clinton would instantaneously pull even with Obama in South Carolina if Edwards were to drop out:

Meanwhile, on the Dem side, the poll has Obama with a nine-point lead over Clinton, 40%-31%. Just asking: With Obama way out in front of Clinton with African-American voters (56%-25%), but trailing both Clinton and Edwards among whites (39%-28%-20%), is South Carolina at least one contest where Edwards still being in the race actually helps Obama? It sure looks like Clinton and Edwards are splitting the white vote...

Obama is dominating Clinton among African-Americans nationwide, and even stronger in states where campaigning has actually taken place. Edwards draws very little of the African-American vote from Obama, but is competitive for white southern votes. This means that in states like South Carolina (Jan 26th) and Georgia (Feb 5th), Obama's lead is largely dependent on Edwards staying in the campaign. In Alabama (Feb 5th), and Missouri (Feb 5th), Obama has a chance to win both states, but probably only if Edwards stays in the campaign and stays in double-digits. Obama winning Kansas (Feb 5th) is probably also dependent on Edwards staying in the campaign. Further, Obama's delegate totals in all of these states will be improved by Edwards staying in the campaign. Further, while his winning or losing in Arkansas, Connecticut, Illinois, New Jersey, New York, and Tennessee is not dependent on Edwards staying in the campaign, Obama's delegate totals from these states will probably be better with Edwards in the campaign than with Edwards out of the campaign. In every case, Edwards will take a larger bite out of Clinton's advantage among white voters than he will from Obama's advantage among African-American voters.

With Hillary Clinton nudging ahead in Nevada, right now Edwards dropping out would be absolutely devastating to the Obama campaign. If Clinton won Nevada, and Edwards dropped out, Illinois and Georgia might be the only two remaining states where Obama would have an advantage. Barring a spectacular Clinton collapse, the campaign would be all but over. Clinton's advantage would be insurmountable.

Obama's only chance in this campaign is if Edwards stays in the race through February 5th, and stays in the double-digits in just about every state through February 5th. If Obama can put together a string of victories from January 19th through February 5th, he might be able to compete with Clinton one on one. Right now, however, he can't do that. So, if you are an Obama supporter pissed at Edwards for staying in the campaign, or frustrated that Edwards has maintained large support online, remember this: if Edwards drops out, or sees his poll numbers collapse before February 5th, this campaign is over. If you don't believe me, just look at the difference between the two Nevada polls were Edwards is strong (Clinton and Obama are tied in those polls) and the two Nevada polls where Edwards is weak (Clinton leads a 7.5% lead in those two polls). Right now, unless he wins Nevada, Edwards is functionally acting as a spoiler to Clinton, and in favor of Obama. If he does well between now and February 5th, Obama might be strong enough to challenge Clinton one-on-one. However, he isn't strong enough yet, and he needs help from Edwards to get him to that point.

Tagged as: democrats, clinton, obama, edwards, nevada, south carolina

Chris Bowers was a full-time editor at MyDD from May 2004 until June 2007. Some of his projects have included the creation of the Liberal Blog Advertising Network, the first scientifically random poll of progressive netroots activists, the Use It Or Lose It campaign, the nation's most accurate forecast of Democratic house pickups in 2006, and the 2006 Googlebomb the Elections campaign.